With the NBA playoffs in full swing, four Dartmouth Sports Analytics club members broke down some matchups that they would love to see as the Association goes on to crown its champion this June.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Golden State Warriors
Mac Hadden ’25
A Warriors squad reminiscent of the pre-Durant era against an Irving- and Durant-led Nets squad would be a series featuring an incredible concentration of star power. Both in their early 30s, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving each have something to prove before the primes of their careers are fully behind them. What better way for Durant to further establish his legacy than carrying an underperforming Nets squad to a victory over the Warriors dynasty he helped cement but has never won without. A faceoff between two-time MVP Steph Curry and his overshadowed brother Seth could also be a bonus narrative to follow.
Both teams have big names in the NBA landscape: former MVPs Curry and Durant, multiple-time All-Stars Draymond Green, Klay Thomson, Blake Griffin, and one of the most controversial players in the league this season, Kyrie Irving. The Warriors won nine more games than the Nets this year, but both teams can be seen as having underperformed. By now, greatness is the expectation for Golden State, but partially due to injury, fans have only seen inconsistent flashes of that this year. Meanwhile, the Nets assembled what was expected to be one of the most powerful big threes in NBA history. However, storylines around Brooklyn have been more focused on situations off the court with the departure of James Harden, the arrival but absence of Ben Simmons, and Kyrie Irving only playing 29 games due to his vaccination status. Hopefully, the Nets can put the drama of the regular season behind them and finally focus on winning basketball games; it would all only become more exciting if former Rookie of the Year Ben Simmons makes his Brooklyn debut during these playoffs.
The Nets and Warriors play different styles of basketball. The “splash bros” and Golden State have hoisted up the third-most 3s in the league this year, and although Klay Thomson has been out for 60 games, he’s averaged nine attempts from behind the arc when on the court. The Nets shoot the third-fewest 3s in the league, but interestingly enough, Brooklyn has multiple players who have shot above 40-plus percent from 3 this season, including Irving and Patty Mills — Golden State doesn’t have a single shooter hitting at this rate. (Perhaps it’s simply the difference in sample size.) Seth Curry has also provided a much-needed spark from beyond the arc for the Nets, and his addition could really pay dividends during the postseason, where every 3 packs a punch and can turn the momentum of a tight game.
Although the veteran core of this Warriors team mirrors that of the 2015 championship team, younger players have also provided key contributions. Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins have had an opportunity to shine in the Warriors’ system under Steve Kerr. Poole has proven that he can be a dependable starter when there’s room for him in the lineup, while Wiggins has finally gotten an opportunity to play on a championship-caliber team these last two years, surrounded by serious talent that takes the pressure off of him on the offensive end. His 3-point shooting has also increased and improved every year he’s been at Golden State, up to 39 percent on 5.5 attempts per game this season.
To add, Klay Thomson ended the regular season on a bang dropping a season-high 41 points against the Pelicans, and his two games prior were boht 30-plus outputs. They’ve still got a lot of uncertainty, including the health of Steph Curry, but the Warriors might get hot just in time to make another playoff run.
Timing can be truly everything. In the second year of the play-in tournament for seeds Nos. 7-10, Irving just made his first 12 shots of the game to help the Nets get through against the Cavs. Seth Curry had a night he’d like to forget, failing to get on the scoresheet. Andre Drummond, on the other hand, provided 18 points in only 19 minutes. Brooklyn will need these role players to step up and support the efforts of Irving and Durant if the Nets want to get past a rolling Celtics squad and have any hope of facing a team like Golden State in the Finals.
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Joe Tang ’25
The Phoenix Suns dominated the Western Conference and topped the NBA standings this year, finishing with a franchise-best 64-18 record after an already impressive 51-21 regular season finish last year. Hungry for revenge after blowing a two-games-to-none lead against the Milwaukee Bucks last season, the Suns are my top contender to win the Finals this year.
A potential finals run for the Suns will be led by their backcourt: MVP-caliber Devin Booker and veteran Chris Paul. Devin Booker has always been the Suns’ primary scoring option and has proven to be one of the best shooting guards in the league having averaged above 24 points per game since his third year. Booker has continued his scoring prowess, averaging 26.8 points per game this season while shooting 46.6 percent from the field. Coupled with a career-high-tying 38.3 percent from three-point range, Booker will pose a huge difficulty to opposing teams this spring.
Future Hall of Famer Chris Paul will also be a key factor to a successful Suns run. His ability to facilitate off the pick-and-roll and dictate the pace of the game on the offensive end have allowed the Suns to continue to dominate. Paul has also produced statistically, averaging a double-double in points and assists. However, the basketball IQ gained from his sixteen-year NBA tenure will be the true determining factor if the Suns want to make a deep run.
Aiding the Suns’ superstars are Jae Crowder, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges. Having played together for the past two seasons, this supporting cast has continued to build chemistry but also has improved in their individual games as well. Cameron Johnson has improved his scoring production this season, averaging 46 percent from the field and 42.5 percent from three, proving to be a reliable wing. Fellow veteran Jae Crowder provides Finals experience, having played in the championship round with the Miami Heat in 2020. On the defensive end, Defensive Player of the Year candidate Mikal Bridges and rim-protector Deandre Ayton have led the Suns to have the best defensive rating in the NBA. Considering that they’ve returned the same core of players from last year’s finals run, the Suns have a good chance at making back-to-back finals appearances.
In the Eastern Conference, the Milwaukee Bucks are my pick to return to the NBA Finals. The Bucks are looking much more dangerous this year with their franchise player and MVP-candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo averaging 29.3 points per game and 11.6 rebounds per game. Giannis has not only continued to be the most athletically-dominant player in the league, getting to the basket without trouble and either finishing or drawing a foul at the rim, but he has also improved his jump shot — teams can no longer sag in the paint, daring him to shoot.
Unlike the Suns’ young roster, the Bucks’ starting lineup is filled with NBA veterans. Starting with Jrue Holiday, his primary contributions are defense and offensive facilitation. However, Holiday has also carried some of the scoring load averaging 18.3 points per game. Kris Middleton is the Bucks’ second scoring option after Giannis, lethal from mid-range and able to hit knockdown 3s when asked. Brook Lopez caps off the returning starters. Lopez’ ability to hit catch-and-shoot 3s as a seven-footer spaces the floor, allowing Giannis to exploit the paint.
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Carter Sullivan ’24
For a summary of the Celtics’ early season woes, consider the following headlines: “Ime Udoka rips Boston Celtics’ ‘lack of mental toughness’ after blowing another huge lead;” “Change feels inevitable for Celtics because this team can’t change its ways;” “C’s historically bad from 3 in loss.”
Now, FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR rankings give Ime Udoka’s squad a 46 percent chance of making the Finals and 32 percent chance of winning it all, both the highest of any team. The Celtics’ 2022 turnaround has been legendary. However, the only reason it can be called a “turnaround” is because the team began the year playing so poorly. The same cannot be said for the reigning champion Bucks, who despite a relatively slow start to the season, never slumped as low as the Celtics. Behind the strong play of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging a ridiculous 29 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists this year, the Bucks have cemented themselves as contenders for a repeat title.
The Bucks and Celtics have met several times in recent seasons, and from Terry Rozier’s 2018 feud with Eric Bledsoe to Jayson Tatum’s 2020 Opening Night game-winner over Giannis, these matchups have always been heated.
A 2022 playoff matchup would be no exception, and two particular matchups warrant our attention: First, we have the heavyweight clash between Rob Williams, who averages over two blocks per game with his ridiculous 7-foot-5-inch wingspan, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose physical gifts (a 6-for-11 frame and the ability to move down the court like a freight train) are complemented by a more polished skill set than Williams’. Unfortunately, Williams is still recovering from a meniscus surgery, and the Celtics are needing him to get back on the court as soon as possible.
Beyond this matchup, there’s a more subtle one to keep an eye on: Khris Middleton vs. Jaylen Brown. These two players may not guard each other directly, but they perform relatively similar roles on their team, acting as second-option scorers, 3-point scorers, and perimeter defenders. With Brown averaging 23 points per game this season and Middleton a solid 20.1, if one of the two is particularly “on,” they absolutely have the capability to swing things one way or the other. In my opinion, Brown has been far too hot recently (he had five 30-point games in March alone, while Middleton had one) to stop now, and with the defensive intensity he’s been bringing all season, I see him having the edge over Middleton in their matchup. Beyond these two, I do see Giannis getting the better of Rob Williams, but don’t think this will be enough to propel the Bucks to a victory. Instead, I think Marcus Smart’s defensive prowess, Jayson Tatum’s hot-hand (Tatum had ten 30-point games in March!), Jaylen Brown’s all-around skill, and the heart of guys like Al Horford and Payton Pritchard will propel the Celtics to a win in the series, if it happens. Of course, the series will be hard-fought, and I don’t see it ending in any fewer than six games. In the end, however, I do see Boston coming out on top.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Mac Hadden ’25
The Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers have been more than just divisional rivals this year, as their midseason trade changed the course of both franchises in major ways. The Nets were able to move on from their failed attempt at the greatest big three of all time and dealt former MVP and three-time scoring champion James Harden for a multitude of Sixers assets. Seth Curry and Andre Drummond moved into Brooklyn and have made solid contributions to the squad, and the Nets secured two first-round Philly draft picks. Not even mentioned is Ben Simmons, 2018’s Rookie of the Year and an all-star talent who hasn’t played a minute for either team this season due to some mix of injury and mental struggles. The trade allowed both teams to move on from situations that were clearly never going to work and instead look for other ways to capitalize on their talented rosters.
The Nets and Sixers line up on opposite sides of the bracket, and either team making it to the Eastern Conference Finals would be a major success. Neither team has been to the NBA Finals since the early 2000s. The Sixers have been plagued by narratives around their inability to perform in the postseason, but Joel Embiid is playing like a man on a mission to change perceptions of his franchise. He’s deserving of the MVP and has been pouring himself into winning all season by averaging 30 points per game in close to 34 minutes. Whether Embid can maintain or elevate this level of night-in, night-out production will be something to follow this postseason.
The case of James Harden in Philadelphia has been a strange one, as his career seems to move away from one of being “the guy” for his team and into a more supporting role, at least for this Sixers squad. Harden could prove me wrong and take over this postseason — he is that good — but it hasn’t seemed like this Philly team really wants that from him. Since December 16, Embiid has led the Sixers in scoring in all but six games; that’s 47 of their final 53 games. Tyrese Maxey has also proven himself to be capable of stepping up when it’s not Embiid. They didn’t go get Harden in the middle of all that to be their leading scorer. And unfortunately, one stat line that’s especially worrisome for “The Beard” when it comes to this perspective series is that he shot three-for-17 with four turnovers in his chance at revenge on Brooklyn last month. “Feeling pressure” would be an understatement for Harden if the Sixers met the Nets a few weeks from now.
In Brooklyn, everyone knows the greatness of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irying, and all eyes would be on youngster Ben Simmons if the Nets faced the Sixers. Speculation is growing by the day that Simmons will make his Nets debut during these playoffs, and what a storyline it would be. The atmosphere in the Wells Fargo Center if Simmons were to stride back into Philly on a new team fighting for a berth in the NBA Finals would be nothing short of electric. There’s a lot standing between Brooklyn and the ECF, but Simmons could provide that spark in their series against the red-hot Celtics. It’s been almost a year since the NBA world has seen Ben Simmons, and if he does manage to suit up this postseason, he will have no shortage of big-time opportunities to silence his doubters.
No stage is as bright as the playoffs. Shining against their former team to earn a spot in the Finals would be a fairytale ending to a difficult year for either Simmons or Harden. Few narratives could be as intriguing as a Nets vs. Sixers Eastern Conference Finals.